基于景气度线索以及行业趋势：β隐匿下的“平衡木”策略

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The overall A-share market shows a recovery in revenue growth, with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of -0.18% for Q1 2025, and a positive growth of 0.65% for non-financial and non-oil sectors, indicating a significant improvement from the previous quarter [11][16] - The ChiNext board leads with a revenue growth rate of 7.89% in Q1 2025, maintaining positive growth since December 2022, while the STAR Market experiences a decline of 7.24% due to the downturn in the photovoltaic industry [11][16] - The net profit growth for the entire A-share market turns positive at 1.49% in Q1 2025, a recovery from -0.89% in Q4 2024, with the ChiNext board seeing a remarkable increase of 18.02% [11][16] Group 2: Sector Performance - The financial and real estate sectors show a divergence, with securities firms benefiting from capital market reforms, achieving a revenue growth of 22.08% and a net profit growth of 83%, while the banking sector faces pressure from narrowing net interest margins, resulting in a net profit growth slowdown to -1.20% [2][36] - The upstream materials sector demonstrates resilience, particularly in non-ferrous metals, with the gold sub-sector's net profit increasing by 37.9% driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [2][36] - The steel industry faces challenges with overcapacity, leading to a significant decline in profits for the rebar sector, while the plate sector benefits from equipment upgrade policies, showing a notable improvement in net profit growth [2][36] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing and Consumer Trends - The midstream manufacturing sector experiences a "new and old momentum switch," with engineering machinery revenue increasing by 9.88% driven by domestic demand recovery, while exports face a decline of 4.24% [3][39] - The consumer sector reveals structural opportunities, with the home appliance sector benefiting from "trade-in" policies, achieving a net profit growth of 10.14% in Q1 2025 [3][39] - The TMT and AI sectors exhibit high investment characteristics, with the optical module sector seeing a net profit surge of 114.5% due to the global computing power competition [3][39] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a "defensive-flexible-aggressive" investment strategy, focusing on high-dividend banks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI computing hardware as key areas for investment [4][39]