短期维持震荡市思路

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index market is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market rebounded due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, which restored global risk appetite, and the fermentation of concepts like "Stability Ratio + Military Parade". The small and medium - cap growth sectors led the market, and the financial and growth styles performed well. The gains of the four major broad - based indices were: CSI 1000 (+4.62%) > CSI 500 (+3.98%) > SSE 50 (+1.27%) [1]. - In the US stock market, the three major indices all closed in the green last week, with the Nasdaq rising 4.25% [1]. - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Computer (+7.70%) and National Defense and Military Industry (+6.90%) led the gains, while Petroleum and Petrochemicals (-2.07%) and Food and Beverage (-0.88%) lagged [2]. - The trading volume of A - shares increased last week, indicating a restart of investors' trading enthusiasm, but it was still at a neutral - to - bullish level in the short term. After continuous low - volatility periods, the market sentiment broke through last week, with the four major broad - based indices generally surpassing their May highs, showing stronger short - term (daily) bullish sentiment. However, the upward momentum weakened on Thursday and Friday [2]. - The fundamental logic behind the stock index has not changed. The short - term rise is just a manifestation of lingering sentiment, and it is difficult to form a trend - based upward force. This week, the short - term daily bullish power has strengthened, and the market can be regarded as having a relatively strong oscillation. Given that the technical indicators are at high levels and the imagination space of recent themes is limited, it is expected to be difficult to break through the March high. It is recommended that investors can choose short - term long positions within the day or continue to wait and see [2]. - In the derivatives market, the discount of stock index futures has rapidly converged. Currently, the annualized discount rates of the current - quarter contracts of IC and IM have reached 8% and 10% respectively, and it is expected that the convergence speed will slow down. Long positions as substitutes for long - term index investment in futures can be held [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Last Week's Stock Index Operation 3.1.1 International Risk Preference Restoration and General Rise of Global Stock Indices - The stock index market rebounded last week. The reasons were the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, which restored global risk appetite, and the fermentation of concepts like "Stability Ratio + Military Parade". The small and medium - cap growth sectors led the market, and the financial and growth styles performed well. Among the four major broad - based indices, CSI 1000 (+4.62%) > CSI 500 (+3.98%) > SSE 50 (+1.27%) [8]. - Overseas, the easing of the Middle East situation and the restart of interest - rate cut expectations led to a general recovery of global risk assets. In the US stock market, the three major indices all closed in the green last week, with the Nasdaq rising 4.25% [8]. 3.1.2 Computer and National Defense and Military Industry Leading the Gains, and Trading Volume Larger than the Previous Week - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Computer (+7.70%) and National Defense and Military Industry (+6.90%) led the gains, while Petroleum and Petrochemicals (-2.07%) and Food and Beverage (-0.88%) lagged [9]. - In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of A - shares increased last week, with the highest reaching over 16 trillion yuan during the week. Investors' trading enthusiasm restarted, and it was still at a neutral - to - bullish level in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Continued Convergence of Futures Discount and Fluctuation of Option Volatility - In the futures market, the basis (spot - futures) of each futures contract continued to decline last week. Currently, the annualized discount rates of the current - quarter contracts of IC and IM have reached 8% and 10% respectively, and it is expected that the convergence speed will slow down. In operation, short - term investors can choose short - term long positions within the day or continue to wait and see. For monthly operations, the band - trading idea should be maintained. Long positions as substitutes for long - term index investment in futures can be held [10]. - In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options first rose and then fell last week. The IV of the at - the - money contracts of SSE 300 Index Options reached up to 15% during the week and dropped to 13% at the end of the week. It is expected that the volatility will mainly oscillate at a low level in the short term. The previous short - term double - selling positions can take profits and exit. After a second wave of rising volatility, investors can re - enter the market [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Factors and Outlook for the Future 3.2.1 The Central Bank's Net Injection of 136.72 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank achieved a net injection of 136.72 billion yuan in the open market last week. It conducted 202.75 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchase operations and 30 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a total reverse - repurchase maturity amount of 96.03 billion yuan [71]. - In terms of inter - bank interest rates, the interest rates of various tenors increased slightly last week. The overnight Shibor rose 0.30bp, the one - week Shibor rose 13.90bp, the two - week Shibor rose 3.60bp, R001 rose 1.22bp, R007 rose 32.91bp, and R014 rose 8.89bp [71]. 3.2.2 Maintaining the Idea of an Oscillating Market - After continuous low - volatility periods, the market sentiment broke through last week, with the four major broad - based indices generally surpassing their May highs, indicating stronger short - term (daily) bullish sentiment [72]. - However, the upward momentum weakened on Thursday and Friday, with indicators such as trading volume and volatility showing varying degrees of decline. The fundamental logic behind the stock index has not changed. The short - term rise is just a manifestation of lingering sentiment, and it is difficult to form a trend - based upward force [72]. - This week, the short - term daily bullish power has strengthened, and the market can be regarded as having a relatively strong oscillation. Given that the technical indicators are at high levels and the imagination space of recent themes is limited, it is expected to be difficult to break through the March high. It is recommended that investors can choose short - term long positions within the day or continue to wait and see. In the derivatives market, the discount of stock index futures has rapidly converged. Currently, the annualized discount rates of the current - quarter contracts of IC and IM have reached 8% and 10% respectively, and it is expected that the convergence speed will slow down. Long positions as substitutes for long - term index investment in futures can be held [72]. 3.3 Economic Data and Financial Event Forecast 3.3.1 Announcement of Macroeconomic Data - The report mentions the announcement of macroeconomic data, but specific details are not provided [100]. 3.3.2 Key Financial Events - There are no major financial events. Specific events include: the release of the official manufacturing PMI for June at 09:30 on June 30; the release of the US manufacturing PMI for June at 22:00 on July 1; the release of the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June at 20:30 on July 3; and the release of the US non - manufacturing PMI for June at 22:00 on July 3 [101].