招商化工行业周报2025年6月第5周：丁酮、一氯甲烷价格涨幅居前，建议关注PCB相关电子化学品-20250630

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a 3.11% increase in the week of June 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.19 percentage points [1][13]. - Key stocks that led the gains included Dazhongnan (+50%), Tiensheng New Materials (+31.41%), and Cangzhou Mingzhu (+26.93%) [1][13]. - The report suggests focusing on electronic chemicals related to PCB, particularly highlighting the price increases of ketone and monochloro methane [1]. Industry Performance - In the week of June 30, 2025, 26 sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, while 5 experienced declines. The top-performing sub-industries included other plastic products (+8.45%) and carbon black (+7.65%) [2][17]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector was reported at 24.76 times, which is 9.15 times lower than the average PE since 2015 [1][13]. Price and Spread Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were ketone (+11.77%), monochloro methane (+9.09%), and liquid chlorine (+7.35%) [3][20]. - Conversely, Brent crude oil saw a significant decline of 14.1%, while WTI crude oil dropped by 13.18% [3][20]. - The report also noted substantial changes in product spreads, with PX (CFR China) spread increasing by 71.09% [3][42]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were observed, with the highest increases in stocks of chlorpyrifos (+16.67%) and polyester chips (+9.16%) [4][60]. - Notably, urea and glyphosate inventories decreased by 8.33% and 7.69%, respectively [4][63]. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading companies in the compound fertilizer sector, such as Xinyangfeng, and in spherical silica powder, such as Lianrui New Materials [4].