2025年央行货币政策委员会二季度例会点评及政策前瞻：货币灵活宽松，稳内需、稳物价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy will continue. Aggregate monetary policy tools will take turns to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The central bank will use tools such as medium - term lending facilities, outright reverse repurchases, and pledged supplementary loans to make up for medium - and long - term liquidity gaps. There is a possibility of restarting the buying and selling of national bonds to adjust liquidity under the premise of a stable bond market. A 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in the second half of the year is expected to be implemented. Structural monetary policy tools will be enriched to further support key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption, the capital market, and "two new" and "two important" sectors. A 20BP interest rate cut in the second half of the year is also expected to be implemented [2][3][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q2 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Highlights - The description of the domestic economy is positive, with new challenges of "more trade barriers" and "low - running prices". The judgment of the external economic environment has changed from "weak growth momentum in the world economy" in Q1 to "weakening growth momentum in the world economy", and the description of the domestic economic environment has become more optimistic. However, concerns about "persistently low - running prices" are newly added [5] - Monetary policy continues to be "moderately loose" and pays more attention to "flexibility". The implementation of subsequent monetary policies will focus more on quality, and emphasize flexible control of the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [6] - Structural monetary policy supports key areas such as "two new" and "two important". It continues to support areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption, and the capital market, and adds support for "two new" and "two important" areas [6] - Exchange - rate pressure has eased. Three "resolutely" statements are deleted, and the tone of stabilizing the exchange rate has become more relaxed. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has relieved the short - term constraints on monetary policy [7] - The real estate market is mainly focused on "stability". The stance of "stabilizing the real estate market" continues, and if the market declines in the future, there is still room for policy intensification [7] 3.2 Economic and Financial Data Performance from January to May 2025 - Industrial added - value growth has slowed marginally, and service - sector production has been relatively stable. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value were 5.9%, 7.7%, 6.1%, and 5.8% respectively. The growth rates of high - tech industries remained high, and some industries' production was affected by exports [11] - Consumption growth has been remarkable, mainly driven by the expansion of the trade - in policy and online sales promotions. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods were 4%, 5.9%, 5.1%, and 6.4% respectively. However, the follow - up policy recovery and its sustainability in supporting consumption need to be monitored [12] - The growth rate of fixed investment has continued to decline. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment have remained resilient, while real estate investment has been a drag. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment completion were 3.5%, 2.8%, 1.1%, and 0.7% respectively [13] - Export growth has slowed marginally, and the "rush - to - export" effect has diminished. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export amounts were 3.6%, 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.8% respectively. Although the impact of tariffs on exports has weakened, the impact of weakening external demand still needs attention [14] - In terms of prices, both CPI and PPI have remained low, with unstable demand and narrowed corporate profit margins. From January to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of CPI were 0.5%, - 0.7%, - 0.1%, - 0.1%, and - 0.1% respectively, and those of PPI were - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.5%, - 2.7%, and - 3.3% respectively [17] - In terms of social financing, the increment of social financing and credit has slowed down in Q2, and government bonds have been the main support. Government bonds have been the main support for social financing, while credit has gradually declined [18] - In terms of credit, the new loans of residents have declined, while corporate short - term loans have increased and medium - and long - term loans have decreased. From January to May 2025, the new short - term and medium - and long - term loans of residents have decreased, while corporate short - term loans and bill financing have increased, and medium - and long - term loans have decreased [19] - In terms of government bonds, in the first half of 2025, the net financing of general national bonds was about 2.5 trillion yuan, and that of special national bonds was about 0.9 trillion yuan. The total issuance scale of local government bonds was about 5.5 trillion yuan, and the net financing was about 2.5 trillion yuan [19] 3.3 Review of Monetary Policy and Tools in the First Half of 2025 - The "moderately loose" monetary policy has been implemented. In Q2, policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have been implemented. The central bank has also proposed to optimize monetary policy intermediate variables and improve the interest rate transmission mechanism [22] - In terms of interest rates, policy rates remained unchanged in Q1, and an interest rate cut was implemented in Q2. The money market interest rates have been continuously loose in the first half of 2025 [23] - In terms of aggregate, a reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented in May, releasing 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity. In June, the central bank carried out outright reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities. Although the net investment in the second quarter was less than that in the first quarter, overall, medium - and long - term liquidity achieved net investment [24] - In terms of structure, in May, the central bank increased the quota of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, increased the quota of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses, and established re - loans for service consumption and elderly care. Currently, the balance of structural monetary policy tools is about 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 15% of the central bank's balance sheet [25] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy will continue. Aggregate and structural monetary policy tools will be used to support key areas, and there is a possibility of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20BP interest rate cut in the second half of the year [29]