Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 10:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of new production capacity is increasing, while most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash cost at current price levels, dampening production enthusiasm and causing some to suspend delivery product lines [2][3] - The demand side is relatively weak. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been reduced, demand has weakened marginally, silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to cut production, and end - market purchasing enthusiasm is low [3] - With the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan in the three - north desert regions, market sentiment has improved, but the polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices [3] - There was a short - term supply reduction due to a Xinjiang factory's shutdown, leading to a polysilicon price rebound, but prices may fall after the news fades. Long - and medium - term operations should focus on short - selling at high levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 33,535 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the position volume was 66,333 lots, down 2,729 lots [3] - The price difference between August and September for polysilicon was 550 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 25,475 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 1,185 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan [3] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.22 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars [3] - The average prices of polysilicon (cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding materials) were 28, 29.5, and 31 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,060 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price was 8,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons [3] - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the total social inventory was 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 793 tons, down 161 tons [3] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 4.88 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts [3] - The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W [3] - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 103,399,980 units, up 19,610,660 units; the import volume was 12,098,490 units, down 8,021,950 units [3] - The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.29 US dollars/unit, up 0.02 US dollars/unit [3] - The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 21.67, down 0.62 [3] Industry News - As of June 27, the mainstream market prices of P - type and N - type polysilicon were stable [3] - The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on Trump's bill, which restricts new energy and affects industry demand [3] - Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads [3] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Silicon wafer enterprises' unsold inventory suppresses market prices [3] Key Focus - No news today [3]