瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. With the weakening of the overseas economic situation, it is recommended to go short on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 2,041.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 82,414 lots, down 753 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,141 lots, down 198 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 46,288 tons, up 403 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory is 271,925 tons, down 1,500 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,180 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 250 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.14 dollars/ton, down 0.74 dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,303 yuan, up 274 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,700 tons, up 900 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 10,178.57 yuan/ton, up 1.78 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,500 yuan/ton, down 3,800 yuan. The monthly output of automobiles is 2.642 million vehicles, down 50,000 vehicles; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million vehicles, an increase of 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Market Outlook - On the supply side, primary lead smelters increase their operating rates and output due to rising lead prices. Although the price of lead warms up slightly, reducing the loss pressure of recycled lead, the recycled lead supply has limited incremental space as the second - quarter traditional off - season reduces battery replacement demand and increases the difficulty of subsequent production improvement. On the demand side, market transactions are generally weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles shows a slowdown. In terms of inventory, overseas inventories decline again; domestic inventories decline slightly while warehouse receipts increase, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and overseas markets, creating arbitrage space. The lead concentrate processing fee starts to decline, which has a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled lead and primary lead [2]