瑞达期货聚丙烯产业日报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PP2509 shows a weak and fluctuating trend, closing at 7,070 yuan/ton. Supply - side: Last week, new capacity of Zhenhai Refining was put into operation, and the impact of maintenance devices increased. Production increased by 0.23% to 789,200 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.54% to 79.30%. Demand - side: The average downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.58% to 49.05%. Inventory: PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.23% to 785,800 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In early July, more PP devices are expected to stop, and production and capacity utilization are expected to decline. In the long - term, supply pressure from new capacity remains. The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the PP downstream operating rate may continue to decline slightly. Overseas demand is seasonally weak, with limited support. Cost - wise, geopolitical factors have less impact, and weak global demand pressures international oil prices. PP has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a neutral main basis. In the short - term, PP2509 is expected to fluctuate, with daily K - line support around 7,050 and pressure around 7,150 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) is 7,070, down 33; 1 - month contract is 7,012, down 29; 5 - month contract is 6,999, down 20; 9 - month contract is 7,070, down 33. - 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) is 218,846, down 4,797; 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) is 425,759, up 497. - 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) is 410,053, down 1,949; 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚丙烯(日,手) is 478,139, up 8,778; 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) is - 68,086, down 10,727. - 仓单数量:聚丙烯PP(日,手) is 7,404, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 909; PP(均聚注塑):CFR远东:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 854, both unchanged. - PP(拉丝级):浙江:完税自提价(日,元/吨) is 7,220, down 5 [2]. 3.3上游情况 - 丙烯:CFR中国(日,美元/吨) is 796, down 5; 丙烷:远东:到岸价(CFR)(日,美元/吨) is 558, up 15. - FOB:石脑油:新加坡(日,美元/桶) is 61.34, up 0.12; CFR:石脑油:日本(日,美元/吨) is 569.75, up 1 [2]. 3.4产业情况 - 开工率:聚丙烯(PP):石化企业(周,%) is 79.3, down 0.54 [2]. 3.5下游情况 - 开工率:聚丙烯:平均(日,%) is 49.05, down 0.58; 开工率:聚丙烯:塑编(日,%) is 43.2, down 0.36; 开工率:聚丙烯:注塑(日,%) is 55.43, down 0.35; 开工率:聚丙烯:BOPP(日,%) is 60.41, unchanged; 开工率:聚丙烯:PP管材(日,%) is 36.6, up 0.54; 开工率:聚丙烯:胶带母卷(日,%) is 48.95, down 0.59; 开工率:聚丙烯:PP无纺布(日,%) is 36.28, down 0.37; 开工率:聚丙烯:CPP(日,%) is 56.38, down 0.62 [2]. 3.6期权市场 - 历史波动率:20日:聚丙烯(日,%) is 13.61, down 0.1; 历史波动率:40日:聚丙烯(日,%) is 12.27, up 0.04. - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚丙烯(日,%) is 10.79, unchanged; 平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚丙烯(日,%) is 10.79, unchanged [2]. 3.7行业消息 - From June 20th to 26th, domestic polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.30%, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period. - From June 20th to 26th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. - As of June 25th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 785,800 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons from the previous period, a 4.23% decrease from the previous period [2].