Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade mines remains stable; the supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has rebounded, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. On the smelting side, currently, the raw material prices are high, while the nickel price is in a downward trend, which affects the profitability of other smelters and causes losses. Some non - integrated smelters choose to cut production. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants is compressed, and the 300 - series is being converted to other products; the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, but its proportion is relatively small and has limited impact. Recently, both supply and demand are weak, downstream purchases on demand, domestic inventory has decreased, but overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, the short - selling force has weakened with the reduction of positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 350; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai Nickel is - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5190 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 76,791 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,947. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Nickel is - 6,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 250. The LME nickel inventory is 204,006 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 288. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,718 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 586. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 11,010 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,224. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,221 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36 [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 350. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 400. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 185.29 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2.65 [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, with an increase of 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7.5923 million tons, with an increase of 0.1999 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 23,900 metal tons, with an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, with a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, with an increase of 31,300 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 396,000 tons (decrease not specified); the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons, with a decrease of 5,900 tons [3]. Industry News - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in May, the same as in April. In the 12 months through May, the PCE inflation rate climbed from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. Excluding volatile components such as food and energy, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, while the core PCE inflation rate in April rose only 0.1%. Macroeconomically, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed has risen moderately, with the core PCE price rising 0.2% month - on - month in May, and consumer spending has seen the largest decline since the beginning of the year. China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw their profits decline 1.1% year - on - year from January to May, and 9.1% year - on - year in May. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation in the face of increasing trade barriers. Trump said he will choose someone who wants to cut interest rates as the Fed chairman, called Powell "stupid" for artificially keeping interest rates high, and believes the US interest rate should be between 1% and 2% [3].
瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250630