Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 10:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach with a reference price range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton. The fundamental situation shows high uncertainty in the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and restricted imports due to Thailand's ban on transit transportation. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. On the smelting side, there are raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the开工率 is low. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic and electronics industries are in a downturn, and domestic inventories have risen slightly. However, overseas inventories are decreasing, and the LME tin price is strong, which drives up the domestic price. Technically, long - positions are weakening, but the price has reached the MA60 mark [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 268,110 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price was 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars. - The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin was - 20 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the position of the main contract was 31,484 lots, down 1,518 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in futures was 819 lots, down 696 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,175 tons, up 60 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 6,955 tons, down 10 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 665 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 6,750 tons, up 199 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price was 267,200 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 267,760 yuan/ton, down 2,450 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was - 1,470 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 120.01 US dollars/ton, up 24.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 257,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 261,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,630 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1407 million tons, down 0.0339 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In the US, the PCE price index rose 0.1% in May, and the PCE inflation rate climbed from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in May. - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May, it decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. - The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment. Trump criticized the Fed and advocated for lower interest rates [3].