Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 10:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2340 and the resistance around 2400. The rebound sustainability of the 09 contract is questionable due to the lack of fundamental positives, but the downside space of the futures price is limited as it is close to the cost below 2200. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the caustic soda industry will increase as there are many caustic soda production units scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, and the caustic soda spot market still faces significant pressure with limited demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2319 yuan/ton, with no change. The trading volume is 614,345 lots, a decrease of 66,487 lots; the open interest is 269,237 lots, an increase of 12 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures brokers is - 24,910 lots, a decrease of 1,698 lots. The closing prices of the January and May caustic soda contracts are 2324 yuan/ton and 2383 yuan/ton respectively, with the May contract up 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis is 119 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 635 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 1.3% increase from the previous period. As of June 26th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.51% increase from the previous period and a 10.40% increase year - on - year [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Supply side: Last week, some enterprises' caustic soda production facilities were shut down for maintenance while others restarted, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 82.5%. This week, three sets of facilities in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three sets in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production units scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, increasing the long - term supply pressure of the industry. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all declined. The alumina price and profit slightly decreased, and the growth of its operating rate stagnated. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak during the off - season, and there is resistance to high prices. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period [3].