Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 10:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, the US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "big and beautiful" bill with a vote ratio of 51 to 49. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the inventory at domestic ports increased slightly. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased, and the demand for iron ore remained supported. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are mixed, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA pulled back from high levels. Operationally, conduct short - term trading in the range of 723 - 710, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 715.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume was 668,751 lots, down 11,149 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 57,432 lots, down 7,849 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,800 lots, down 200 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 94.05 US dollars/ton, down 0.23 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 754 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 665 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 39 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 94.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.10 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.60, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 779 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,357.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 tons. The inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.07 tons. The inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88.77 tons. The monthly iron ore import volume was 9,813 tons, a decrease of 501 tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 41.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 65.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.14%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 53.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 tons. The BDI index was 1,521, down 32. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 21.16 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 6.79 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.55%, down 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.87%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.75%, down 1.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.38%, down 0.10% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,882.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,363.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,217.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 tons [2]