Minsheng Securities·2025-06-30 10:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the upcoming semi-annual reports, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025 [1]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is opening, with high demand expected to persist, suggesting a focus on large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - The report highlights the potential for the pesticide industry to improve due to increased safety regulations following recent chemical accidents, which may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3490.59 points, up 3.11% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15% [10]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 376 stocks rose (81%), while 79 stocks fell (17%) [16]. Key Chemical Sub-sectors - Urea, Ketone, and Sulfuric Acid: These products saw significant price increases, with urea prices rising by 18% to 430 CNY/ton [20]. - Phosphate Fertilizers: The report notes a phased approach to phosphate fertilizer exports, with the first batch expected between May and September 2025 [2]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 27, while Hailide is expected to have an EPS of 0.35 CNY with a PE of 14 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 36, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the polyester filament market is experiencing price fluctuations, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY increasing slightly but facing downward pressure due to weak downstream demand [22][23]. - The tire industry shows mixed signals, with full steel tire production rates at 62.23% and half steel tire rates at 70.40%, indicating a slight increase in full steel production but a decrease in half steel production [32]. Price Movements - The report tracks significant price movements in various chemical products, with notable increases in urea and sulfuric acid, while other products like liquid chlorine and WTI crude oil saw declines [19][21].