动力煤价持续上涨，关注板块配置机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of thermal coal continues to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for further price increases [3][9][10] - Coking coal prices are fluctuating, with slight increases in total inventory for coking steel, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to fundamental pressures [3][25][26] - The equity market is primarily bullish, but the coal sector underperformed compared to the broader index, suggesting a need for careful stock selection within the sector [3][4] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Upstream port inventories continue to decline, leading to sustained price increases for thermal coal. The capacity utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, down 1.2% from the previous period [9][11] - Daily consumption of thermal coal at power plants is expected to improve marginally due to rising temperatures and increased demand, with southern power plants consuming 1.84 million tons daily, up 1.3 million tons week-on-week [9][17] - The price of thermal coal at production sites is rising, with prices for Q5500 thermal coal in Shanxi at 493 CNY/ton, up 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][14] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are mixed, with supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a capacity utilization rate of 84.4% for 88 sample coking coal mines [25][27] - The average profit margin for steel mills is 59.32%, indicating a stable production environment, while coking coal inventories at independent coking enterprises have increased to 678.66 million tons [25][30] - The CCI coking coal index shows stability, with prices for various types of coking coal remaining relatively unchanged [27][28] Market Performance - The equity market saw an overall increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.91% to 3424.23 points, while the coal sector only increased by 0.66%, underperforming the broader market [4][9] - The average daily trading volume in the market was 1.5 trillion CNY, indicating a high level of market activity despite the coal sector's underperformance [4][9] Shipping and Logistics - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim increased to an average of 99 ships per day, with shipping prices also rising across major routes [34][35] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is now 41.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.10 CNY/ton [34][36] Industry News - In May, China's imports of thermal coal decreased by 0.96%, while imports of coking coal fell by 16.9% [37] - Shanxi Province reported a significant increase in coalbed methane production, accounting for 82% of the national total [37][38]