股指期货策略早餐-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - Day - to - day view: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - Medium - term view: Bullish [1] - Reference strategy: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - Core logic: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Day - to - day view: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - Medium - term view: Bullish [2] - Reference strategy: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - Core logic: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Day - to - day view: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - Medium - term view: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - Reference strategy: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - Core logic: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - Industrial Silicon - Day - to - day view: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - Medium - term view: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - Reference strategy: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - Core logic: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - Polysilicon - Day - to - day view: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - Medium - term view: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - Reference strategy: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - Core logic: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - Aluminum - Day - to - day view: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - Medium - term view: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - Reference strategy: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - Core logic: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - Lithium Carbonate - Day - to - day view: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - Medium - term view: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - Reference strategy: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - Core logic: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Day - to - day view: Downward pressure weakens [14] - Medium - term view: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - Reference strategy: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - Core logic: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - Hogs - Day - to - day view: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - Medium - term view: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - Reference strategy: Short on rallies [17] - Core logic: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - Sugar - Day - to - day view: Oscillate weakly [19] - Medium - term view: Rise first and then fall [19] - Reference strategy: Short on rallies [19] - Core logic: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - Protein Meal - Day - to - day view: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - Medium - term view: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - Reference strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - Core logic: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Day - to - day view: Oscillate within a range [25] - Medium - term view: Face downward pressure [25] - Reference strategy: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - Core logic: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - PVC - Day - to - day view: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - Medium - term view: Limited upside potential [28] - Reference strategy: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - Core logic: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]