天气扰动消费淡季，或将维持区间震荡

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated within a range, first declining and then rising, with a slight overall increase. In the future, geopolitical conflicts will continue to cause the rubber price to fluctuate repeatedly. Although the supply side is affected by weather and boosts the rubber price, the market has entered the off - season of consumption, and the overall supply and demand of rubber still present a relatively loose pattern. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound movement in the short term. Key factors to focus on include the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, weather disturbances in major rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][83] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 13,640 - 14,165 yuan/ton. As of the close on the afternoon of June 27, 2025, it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton, rising 145 points or 1.04% for the week [13] - Spot Price: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][20] - Basis and Spread: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of June 27, 2025, the basis was maintained at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [24] Important Market Information - International Events: On June 23, Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which led to a nearly 9% drop in international oil prices and a rise in the US stock market. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently, but does not rule out the possibility of an early interest rate cut. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations [27] - US Economic Data: In June, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52, the consumer confidence index dropped by 5.4 points to 93, the first - quarter real GDP final value decreased by 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, and the initial jobless claims last week decreased by 10,000 to 236,000 [28] - Eurozone Economic Data: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in June was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's dropped to 48.5 [29] - Automobile Industry: In May, the UK's automobile exports to the US decreased by 55.4% year - on - year, and the automobile production decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 49,810 vehicles, the lowest monthly output in 76 years. From January to May, China's automobile production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year, and the export of new energy vehicles increased by 64.6% year - on - year [29][32] Supply - side Situation - Natural Rubber Production: As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly compared with the previous month, while the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. Thailand's production decreased significantly. The total production of major natural - rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, with a slight increase from the previous month [39] - Synthetic Rubber Production: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly production of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [43][47] - Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires: As of May 31, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [50] Demand - side Situation - Tire Enterprise Operating Rate: As of June 26, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.64%, an increase of 0.16% from the previous week [53] - Automobile and Tire Production and Sales: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The monthly sales volume was 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [57][60][65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 191,960 tons, a decrease of 880 tons from the previous week. As of June 22, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons or 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 780,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 506,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in the Qingdao area was 617,300 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51% [80] Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. Recently, tapping work in major domestic and foreign producing areas has been affected by weather, resulting in limited raw material output and relatively short supply. However, there is a strong expectation of increased supply in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [82] - Demand Side: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The finished product inventory was at a historical high, and downstream factories made purchases as needed. In the terminal automobile market, from January to May, the production and sales volume of national automobiles and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased slightly year - on - year. In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.18% [82] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise slightly [82] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound movement this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][84]