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科创新源(300731):液冷新星,有望业绩与估值双击
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-30 11:15

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to enter a high growth cycle driven by its dual focus on polymer materials and thermal management systems, particularly in the booming sectors of new energy vehicles and data centers [1][4]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.05% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, with a significant revenue increase of 72% year-over-year in 2024, primarily due to the rapid expansion in the new energy battery sector [1][29]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projections of 1.45 billion, 2.42 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 51.3%, 67.0%, and 39.2% [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Management System Business - The company has established a dual business model focusing on polymer materials and thermal management, serving major clients such as Huawei and CATL [18][19]. - In 2024, the company plans to invest 90 million yuan in a new project for large-area cooling liquid plates for new energy vehicles to meet the production demands of major clients [3]. 2. AI Liquid Cooling - The demand for AI-driven data centers is expected to surge, with the company aiming to penetrate the supply chain of leading server manufacturers by establishing a subsidiary focused on data center cooling solutions [2][40]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Dongguan Zhaoke, a thermal interface materials company, to enhance its product offerings and market reach [2][24]. 3. Vehicle Cooling Plates - The company is set to benefit from the increasing production of CATL's Kirin and Shenxing batteries, which will enhance the value of its liquid cooling plates used in electric vehicles [3][75]. - The new energy business is projected to generate significant revenue, with a forecasted increase of 361.36% year-over-year in 2024 [35]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to enter a rapid growth phase driven by its new energy battery and data center thermal management businesses, with a projected net profit of 0.92 billion, 1.57 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][12]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit growth rates of 430.5%, 70.8%, and 39.6% for the same years [4].