大类资产配置周度点评：偃旗息鼓，全球风险偏好反弹上行-20250630

Asset Allocation Strategy - The tactical asset allocation view for A-shares is maintained at a standard allocation, supported by the stabilization of economic recovery and a decline in risk-free interest rates, which benefits A-share performance[6]. - The tactical allocation for government bonds is also maintained at a standard level, as the balance between financing demand and credit supply limits the upward potential of interest rates[6]. - The tactical allocation for gold has been downgraded to a standard level due to a rebound in market risk appetite and a decrease in geopolitical tensions, which suppresses gold's safe-haven attributes[7]. - The tactical allocation for the US dollar is maintained at a low level, as uncertainties surrounding US fiscal deficits and fluctuating policies may lead to a reduction in dollar holdings by international investors[18]. Market Performance Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 16.24%, with a weekly performance of 2.16%[13]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 21.06% year-to-date, reflecting a weekly rise of 3.20%[13]. - The S&P 500 has a year-to-date increase of 4.96%, with a weekly performance of 3.44%[13]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has shown a year-to-date increase of 2.10%, with a weekly decline of 0.31%[13]. Risk Factors - The analysis framework may have limitations, and the subjective nature of model design could lead to biases in the results[41]. - Historical and expected data may not accurately represent market expectations, which could affect the reliability of the conclusions drawn[41]. - Adjustments in market consensus expectations could lead to changes in the model's conclusions if unexpected events occur[41].