每周投资策略-20250630

Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) appears satisfied with the current inflation situation, indicating no necessity for further rate cuts in the second half of the year [9][11][14] - The "Rearmament of Europe" initiative is expected to benefit industries such as traditional military manufacturing, dual-use high technology, strategic resources, and energy security, with a focus on the aerospace and defense sectors [20][22] - Rheinmetall and Airbus are identified as key beneficiaries of the "Rearmament of Europe" plan, with Rheinmetall projected to see a 20% revenue growth due to increased defense spending [22][21] Group 2: Indian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the key repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, exceeding market expectations, while maintaining a neutral stance due to limited growth support [31][29] - There is an anticipated further rate cut of 25-50 basis points in the current fiscal year, driven by moderate growth prospects and weak private consumption [34][32] - The Indian stock market is currently overvalued, with the Nifty index's earnings per share forecast being significantly downgraded, leading to cautious short-term return expectations [37][35] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Political instability in Thailand is hindering economic recovery, with significant pressure on the stock market and a cautious outlook on corporate earnings [41][51] - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has maintained the policy rate at 1.75% but is expected to lower it to 1.25% later this year to support the economy [47][46] - CP All and Minor International are highlighted as resilient players in the Thai market, with CP All benefiting from 7-Eleven's growth and Minor International having long-term rebound potential despite short-term pressures [52][51]