Core View - The aluminum price is likely to show a fluctuating trend [4][40] Market Review Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures, AL2508, showed a slightly stronger fluctuating market, with prices ranging from around 20,240 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,660 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price showed a slightly stronger fluctuating trend, with contract prices ranging from 2,543 - 2,654 US dollars/ton [13] Spot Analysis - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,920 yuan/ton, 21,070 yuan/ton, 20,955 yuan/ton, and 20,905 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of June 27, 2025, the premium of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] Supply and Demand Alumina Supply - Demand Gap - In May 2025, the alumina supply - demand gap was 310,000 tons, compared with a gap of 20,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [22] Bauxite Imports - As of May 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 17,514,458.2 tons, a decrease of 3,158,824.22 tons from the previous month. The domestic alumina inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period. The total domestic inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [25] Inventory Global Visible Inventory - As of June 27, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous trading day, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 3.58% [32] Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous day [32] Macro and Fundamental Analysis - In May, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.8%. On a month - on - month basis, it increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment was 1,919.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment in May increased by 0.05% [38] - Bauxite imports decreased significantly month - on - month. The global alumina supply - demand remains tight. Alumina inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level. Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. LME aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the domestic invisible market inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline [38]
铝周报：沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250630
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-06-30 11:20