美元资产修复之后

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]