Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 11:34Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate significantly, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a continuous significant accumulation in general trade warehouses. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on inventory digestion. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises were affected by external factors and arranged production halts, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises. The operation of all - steel tire enterprises was mostly stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises. However, there are short - term overhaul plans at the end of the month and early next month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,180 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,795 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,408 hands to 155,148 hands, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,808 hands to 43,000 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 21,509, down 4,150; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 5,939, down 343. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange decreased by 70 tons to 191,890 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange decreased by 704 tons to 26,914 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 215 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 115 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,248 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 66.83 Thai baht/kg, up 1.04 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 47.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.89%, down 4.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.24%, down 0.03 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.61%, down 0.96 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.6%, down 0.98 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, with low precipitation in most other areas, slightly reducing the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little change in the impact on rubber tapping. - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, an increase of 14,800 tons or 2.40% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.62% to 80,700 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.85% to 551,400 tons. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.28 percentage points. - As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.40%, down 1.14 percentage points from the previous period and 9.61 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.84 percentage points from the previous period and down 0.32 percentage points from the same period last year [2].