Economic Performance - In June, the adjusted fiscal expenditure showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a slowdown in government spending since Q2[1] - High-frequency indicators revealed a weakening in real estate sales, with new home transaction area in 44 cities dropping to -17% year-on-year, down from -5.9% in May[1] - The manufacturing sector maintained resilience, with coking and blast furnace operating rates higher than the same period last year by 2.2 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively[1] Inflation and Commodity Prices - As of June 27, Brent oil prices increased by 6.1% month-on-month to $67.8 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3,288 per ounce[2] - Domestic raw material prices showed mixed performance, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 2.6% and 3.5%, while rebar and cement prices fell by 1.3% and 1.2%[2] Financial Market Trends - The LPR remained unchanged in June, with the central bank conducting two reverse repo operations totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating tight interbank liquidity[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in June reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 860.9 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Trade and Export Dynamics - Export growth showed a slight decline, with the year-on-year growth rate for exports from June 1-27 expected to decrease compared to May[1] - The trade surplus for May was reported at $103.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in exports to the U.S. by 34.5%[3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market during a State Council meeting on June 13[4] - On June 24, multiple departments jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, introducing 19 key measures[4]
多重因素推动需求增长环比回落
HTSC·2025-06-30 11:46