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Tianfeng Securities·2025-06-30 11:43

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for the semiconductor storage sector, driven by sustained price increases, AI catalysis, and accelerated domestic production [2][12] - Micron's performance exceeded expectations, with DRAM revenue reaching a historical high and a significant increase in HBM revenue [3][12] - The report forecasts a continued upward trend in storage prices for Q3 and Q4, with DDR4 contract prices expected to rise by 30-40% [2][20] Summary by Sections 1. Micron's Performance - Micron's revenue reached a historical high in FY2025 Q3, with DRAM revenue at $7.071 billion, accounting for 76% of total revenue, and a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [3][12] - HBM revenue grew nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter, and data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year [3][12] - The forecast for Q4 revenue is between $10.4 billion and $11 billion, with gross margins expected to improve to 41-43% [18][20] 2. Market Trends - The report highlights a structural adjustment in the supply of LPDDR4X, leading to price increases in the spot market [24] - The demand for high-capacity storage products is rising, driven by AI applications and the need for higher performance in servers, PCs, and mobile devices [2][12] - The domestic storage market is expected to grow further due to increased localization of high-difficulty products like HBM and eSSD [2][20] 3. Price Dynamics - The report notes significant price increases for DDR4 RDIMM, with 32GB prices rising over 30% from early April to mid-June, and 64GB reaching $220 [22][23] - The price of DDR4 is expected to continue rising, with predictions of an 18-23% increase for PC DDR4 in Q3 [23][20] - NAND Flash contract prices are also expected to rise by 5-10% in Q3, with enterprise SSD orders significantly increasing [20][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the semiconductor storage sector, including Jiangbo Long, Zhaoyi Innovation, and others [5][12] - It also highlights opportunities in IDM foundry and testing companies, as well as SoC and ASIC solution providers [5]