综合晨报-20250630

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. For example, oil prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak, and the stock market shows a preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [1][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices fell from high levels. After the cooling of the Israel - Iran conflict, oil prices are back to being dominated by macro and supply - demand factors. OPEC+ may increase production in August. The oil market is expected to be short - term volatile and weak. [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Ship refueling and deep - processing demand are low. High - sulfur fuel oil demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited. FU is volatile and weak, while LU's cracking has rebounded from a low level. [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined. Domestic chemical demand has increased, but supply pressure still exists, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [23] - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold prices have given back the war premium as the Israel - Iran conflict stopped. Market attention will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed. [2] - Base Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices were in a high - level shock. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Short - term, the upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach 81,000, while long - term, short - selling at high levels is recommended. [3] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum was in a high - level shock on Friday night. There is a large market divergence. There are opportunities for short - selling at high levels after the sentiment stabilizes. [4] - Zinc: The zinc market is affected by the strike at a Peruvian smelter, but the global zinc supply is still expected to be in surplus. Wait for the opportunity to short - sell at high levels. [7] - Lead: Shanghai lead rose and then fell. The supply side provides support, and the rebound height depends on consumption. [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly. The pressure on the ore end has increased. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. [9] - Tin: Tin prices retraced last Friday. It is recommended to short - sell distant - month contracts at high levels. [10] - Manganese Silicon: Prices follow steel. In the short - term, it is temporarily bullish. [18] - Silicon Iron: Prices follow steel. Demand is okay, and it is temporarily bullish in the short - term. [19] - Ferroalloys - Alumina: Spot trading is scarce. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The futures follow Shanghai aluminum. Consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the spread widens. [6] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price has rebounded, but high positions indicate risk accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [11] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price has increased with positions. It is expected to be in a range - bound state. [12] - Polysilicon: The futures price has increased with reduced positions. It is expected to be in a low - level range - bound state. [13] - Urea: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the market is in a range - bound adjustment. Export policies will be the key to the future trend. [24] - Methanol: The expected reduction in imports has not materialized. The market is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [25] - Styrene: The cost side lacks support, supply pressure has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. [26] - Polypropylene & Plastic: The cost side lacks support, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. [27] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is relatively strong in the short - term but may be in a low - level range - bound state in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to follow the cost fluctuation. [28] - PX & PTA: Prices rebounded last Friday night. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium - term. [29] - Ethylene Glycol: The price decline has slowed down. It is expected to be in a bottom - range - bound state. [30] - Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip: Short - fiber prices follow raw materials. Bottle chips may have a chance to repair the processing margin, but it should be treated with caution. [31] Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The drought situation in the US soybean产区 has improved. The market is expected to be in a range - bound state for now. [35] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The market is in a range - bound state. Long - term, a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended for vegetable oils. [36] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed planting area in Canada is lower than expected, and the rapeseed market continues to have a bearish outlook. [37] - Soybean No. 1: The decline has slowed down. Wait for the US soybean planting area report. [38] - Corn: The futures market is expected to be in a range - bound state, affected by factors such as wheat policies and state - reserve auctions. [39] - Hogs: The short - term price has rebounded, but the long - term supply pressure is large. [40] - Eggs: The price is expected to be weak in the long - term. A short - position strategy is recommended. [41] - Cotton: US cotton is expected to be affected by the planting area report. Domestic cotton has a good inventory reduction, and long - positions should be held with caution. [42] - Sugar: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [43] - Apples: The market is bearish on the new - season output, and a short - position strategy is recommended. [44] - Wood: The price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. [45] - Pulp: The price is in a low - level range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. [46] Others - Shipping: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to face pressure on the upside. [20] - Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market shows a style preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [47] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures are mostly volatile. The bond market may face increased volatility risk in the short - term. [48]