ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-06-30 12:52Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the overall prices of industrial metals have risen, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of 2.3%, 1.3%, 2.3%, and 4.9% respectively [4][27] - The non-ferrous metal sector index outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index closing at 5094.64 points, up 5.11% week-on-week, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.20 percentage points [4][25] - The report highlights that the decline in the US dollar index has led to a general increase in basic metal prices, suggesting limited downside potential for these prices in the long term [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has risen, with the non-ferrous metal sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - Domestic metal prices have generally increased, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [27] Macro Factors - In China, the PMI for May showed a slight recovery at 49.5, while the CPI remained negative at -0.1% [6][37] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised down to a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [6][39] - European manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, while global manufacturing PMI continued to decline [7][45] Basic Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the report notes a strong price increase due to low inventory levels and a declining dollar [8][47] - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate decreased to 58.8%, indicating a slight decline in demand [9][47] - The report indicates that the global aluminum inventory has increased, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory rising to 505,000 tons [9][47] - In terms of profitability, the industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 yuan per ton, with current aluminum prices at 20,940 yuan per ton [9][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, emphasizing the potential for price increases in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [10]