Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June, the price center of domestic oils continued to rise. The first half - month saw narrow - range fluctuations, while the second half witnessed a sharp increase followed by a decline due to geopolitical and policy factors [3]. - Globally, oilseeds and vegetable oils are moving towards a more relaxed supply - demand situation. However, different oil products face various contradictions between supply and demand [8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Domestic Market: In June, DCE soybean oil futures rose 4.53%, DCE palm oil futures rose 3.35%, and CZCE rapeseed oil futures rose 0.72%. The price increase was driven by Middle - East tensions, U.S. bio - diesel policy, and high - temperature threats in North America, followed by a decline after the cease - fire [3]. - International Market: CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. Malaysian palm oil futures rose more than 3%, affected by crude oil price changes and bio - diesel policies [3]. 3.2 Future Outlook - International Supply - Demand Contradictions - Soybean: South American bumper harvests compete with low U.S. soybean inventories. With stable weather during the North American planting period, there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [8]. - Rapeseed: There are both expectations of Canadian production cuts and trade policy disturbances. The impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed varieties needs attention [8]. - Palm oil: The high - yield period conflicts with improved export demand. Under inventory accumulation pressure, prices are under pressure, and bio - diesel policies remain a volatility amplifier [8]. - Domestic Market Outlook - Soybean oil: The arrival of South American soybeans increases, and the supply is abundant. However, rising import costs support prices [9]. - Palm oil: The arrival volume from June to July is only 250,000 tons per month. The pattern of "low import, low consumption" continues. International factors provide short - term impetus, but prices may face pressure without new drivers [9]. - Rapeseed oil: Supply and demand are tightening. After July, the arrival of imported rapeseed will decrease significantly. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to rise, but the substitution effect of the soybean - rapeseed oil price difference needs attention [9]. 3.3 Key Data - Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of June, soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 1,730 to 18,882; palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 to 470; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 500 to 100 [14]. - Basis of Three Major Oils: In June, the basis of soybean oil decreased by 98 to 218; the basis of palm oil decreased by 226 to 214; the basis of rapeseed oil decreased by 39 to 134 [20]. - CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions: As of the week of June 24, the net long position of CBOT soybean - managed funds decreased by 25,523 to 35,396; the net long position of CBOT soybean oil - managed funds decreased by 10,803 to 43,775 [23]. - Soybean Premiums at Major Ports: As of June 30, 2025, South American port soybean premiums were 225 cents per bushel, up 80 cents from the previous month; Mexican Gulf soybean premiums were 227 cents per bushel, up 17 cents from the previous month [26]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production and crushing are slightly adjusted upward, and ending stocks are increased again. Global vegetable oil production, trade, consumption, and ending stocks are all slightly increased, showing a trend towards a more relaxed supply - demand situation [32]. - Global Consumption of Three Major Oils: In 2025/26, the consumption of three major oils for biodiesel is 54,131 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. The edible consumption is 127,505 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The growth rates are both slowing down [37]. - Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025/26, global soybean production is expected to be 426.817 million tons, with an increase of 6.04 million tons compared to the previous year. The supply - demand pattern remains relaxed [41]. - Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production is expected to be 8.9773 million tons, an increase of 450,900 tons compared to the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to be 928,800 tons, a slight increase [57]. - Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025/26, global palm oil production is expected to be 8.0736 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous forecast. Ending stocks are expected to be 1.5051 million tons, an increase of 58,800 tons compared to the previous forecast [71]. 3.5 Production and Trade Data of Major Countries - United States: As of the 42nd week of the 2024/25 season, the weekly soybean export volume was 270,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume was 45.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. The export volume to China decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In May 2025, the soybean crushing volume increased by 5.01% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 20.36% year - on - year [43][46][50]. - Brazil: In May 2025, the soybean export volume was 14.23 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to May increased by 3.37% year - on - year. The estimated export volume in June was 14.99 million tons [54]. - Canada: As of the 46th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the weekly rapeseed export volume was 117,900 tons, and the cumulative export volume increased by 53% year - on - year. The commercial inventory decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. As of April 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume decreased by 4% year - on - year, and the cumulative crushing volume from January to April increased by 2.22% year - on - year [64][66]. - Malaysia: In May 2025, palm oil production increased by 3.94% year - on - year, exports increased by 0.16% year - on - year, and inventory increased by 13.5% year - on - year [77]. - Indonesia: In April 2025, palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous year, and inventory was lower than the previous year [80]. - India: In May 2025, the vegetable oil import volume decreased compared to the previous year, and the inventory decreased compared to the previous year [83]. - China: In May 2025, soybean imports increased by 36.16% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports decreased slightly. Rapeseed imports decreased, rapeseed oil imports increased, and palm oil imports decreased [87][91][94][97]. 3.6 Domestic Production Situation - Soybean Oil: As of the 25th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.48 million tons, the soybean oil commercial inventory was 886,300 tons, the operating rate was 67.02%, and the import soybean spot crushing profit was 47 yuan per ton [101]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of the 25th week of 2025, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 145,000 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 630,500 tons, the operating rate was 14.26%, and the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was 406 yuan per ton [105]. - Palm Oil: As of the 25th week of 2025, the palm oil inventory in key regions was 433,900 tons, and the palm oil import profit was - 281 yuan per ton [108].
油脂月报（2025年6月）：价格重心整体上移，天气窗口即将开启-20250630
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-06-30 12:52