长城证券-β隐匿下的_平衡木”策略——基于景气度线索以及行业趋势-250630-去水印

Group 1 - The overall revenue growth of the A-share market shows a recovery trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.18% for the entire A-share market and 0.65% for the non-financial and non-oil sectors in Q1 2025, indicating a significant improvement compared to Q4 2024 [21][28] - The growth rate of revenue for the ChiNext board reached 7.89% in Q1 2025, maintaining positive growth since December 2022, while the STAR Market experienced a decline of 7.24% due to the downturn in the photovoltaic industry [21][28] - The net profit growth for the entire A-share market turned positive in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.49%, compared to a decline of -0.89% in Q4 2024, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [28][36] Group 2 - The financial and real estate sectors are experiencing a divergence, with the real estate sector continuing to weaken, while brokerage firms benefit from the deepening of capital market reforms, showing a year-on-year revenue growth of 22.08% and a net profit growth of 83% [3][59] - The upstream materials sector shows resilience, particularly in the non-ferrous metals segment, which saw a net profit increase of 37.9% year-on-year, driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [3][59] - The steel industry is facing challenges with excess capacity, leading to a significant decline in profits for the rebar segment, while the plate segment benefits from equipment renewal policies, showing a notable improvement in net profit growth [3][59] Group 3 - The midstream manufacturing sector is witnessing a transition between old and new driving forces, with the engineering machinery sector experiencing a revenue increase of 9.88% driven by domestic demand recovery, while exports are negatively impacted by shrinking overseas demand [4][61] - The smart manufacturing and automation sectors are emerging as growth drivers, with industrial robot production increasing by 51.5% year-on-year and the gross profit margin of new energy equipment recovering to 18.7% [4][61] - The consumer sector is highlighting structural opportunities, with the home appliance sector benefiting from "old-for-new" policies, achieving a net profit growth of 10.14% in Q1 2025 [4][61] Group 4 - The innovative drug sector is driven by business development (BD) transactions, with a net profit growth rebound to 7.54% in Q1 2025, supported by domestic medical insurance expansion and breakthroughs in overseas clinical trials [5][63] - The TMT and AI industry chains are characterized by high investment, with the optical module segment benefiting from the global computing power competition, resulting in a net profit increase of 114.5% year-on-year [4][63] - The AI industry chain is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a decrease to 3.25% in Q1 2025, although the pace of domestic substitution is accelerating [4][63]