Changjiang Securities·2025-06-30 13:44Market Overview - The July market is expected to focus on "certainty" and "growth" as it enters a phase of verification following previous expectations[5] - Key factors to monitor include inflation data and marginal changes in monetary policy from major overseas economies, the upcoming Politburo meeting, and developments in US-China trade relations[5] Investment Strategy - Emphasis on value direction, particularly in the underweighted large financial sector by public funds, combined with dividend logic[5] - Focus on technology growth, especially in self-controlled sectors, which are likely to perform well under the influence of US-China relations, and positioning in AI and application fields[5] - Maintain a medium to long-term perspective, continuing to observe improving supply-demand dynamics[5] Recommended Stocks - Metals: China Hongqiao, with a projected net profit of CNY 22.3 billion and a PE ratio of 7.5x for 2025[10] - Transportation: SF Express, expected to maintain steady revenue growth with a 2024 dividend payout ratio of 40%[11] - Chemicals: Yara International, with a production capacity of 1 million tons of potassium chloride and a projected net profit of CNY 2.44 billion for 2025[12] - Electricity: Funiu Co., benefiting from reduced coal prices and continuous shareholder support[13] - Machinery: Giant Star Technology, with a projected net profit of CNY 2.7 billion for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.3x[14] - Military: Aerospace Electric, with expected net profits of CNY 8.66 billion in 2025, growing at 149%[17] - Non-bank Financials: Jiangsu Jinzhong, with projected net profits of CNY 32.6 billion in 2025 and a PB ratio of 1.34[18] - Banking: Qilu Bank, with a projected net profit of CNY 1.14 per share and a PE ratio of 5.6x for 2025[19] - Agriculture: Muyuan Foods, with projected net profits of CNY 20.1 billion in 2025[20] - Electronics: Dongshan Precision, focusing on FPC and new energy sectors, with a projected net profit of CNY 1.95 per share for 2025[22] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation[25] - Significant changes in individual company fundamentals could adversely affect revenue or net profit[25]