债券研究周报：政策锚定内需，债市震荡延续-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting signaled a shift towards domestic demand. The 10Y treasury bond is expected to remain volatile as the downward space for interest rates is not yet open due to limited liquidity and potential fiscal policy impacts [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Policy Anchor and Bond Market Trends - Policy Tone Changes: In terms of economic situation, domestic economic expectations are more positive, but deflation concerns increase, and external demand contraction pressure rises. Monetary policy enters an observation period. Exchange - rate pressure eases, and policy flexibility increases. Financing support focuses more on domestic demand [10][11][13]. - Summary: The meeting emphasizes domestic demand. For the bond market, short - term liquidity is limited, and fiscal policy may cause disturbances, so the 10Y treasury bond is likely to oscillate [2][18]. 2. Institutional Bond Custody No specific content analysis provided in the given text, only mentions of relevant figures about institutional bond custody amounts [19][22][24]. 3. Institutional Fund Tracking - Fund Price: Near the end of the quarter, liquidity tightened. R007 closed at 1.92%, up 33BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.70%, up 20BP; the 6 - month national stock transfer discount rate closed at 1.20%, up 10BP [3][27]. - Financing Situation: The balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 0.4% to 126902.2 billion yuan. Fund companies and bank wealth management had net financing of - 351.4 billion yuan and 1672.6 billion yuan respectively [30]. 4. Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - Fund Duration: The durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.11 and 0.05 respectively compared to last week [40]. - "Asset Scarcity" Index: The index decreased, indicating looser liquidity, lower credit - bond supply, and higher credit - bond demand [48]. - Institutional Behavior Trading Signals: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [50][51][55]. - Institutional Leverage: The overall market leverage ratio remained basically unchanged at 108.0%. Insurance, fund, and brokerage leverage ratios changed by +4.8, +0.8, and - 1.2 percentage points respectively [58]. - Bank Self - Investment Comparison Table: Compares nominal yields, tax costs, and returns after considering tax and risk capital for different investment options [62]. 5. Asset Management Product Data Tracking - Fund: Information on weekly fund establishment scale and 2025 fund yield distribution is presented [64]. - Bank Wealth Management: The overall market product break - even rate decreased slightly to 1.7% [65]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking Tracks the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract [73]. 7. General Asset Management Pattern Shows the scale changes of general asset management, including public funds and bank wealth management [77][80].