Guoxin Securities·2025-06-30 14:44Core Insights - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly focusing on investment opportunities in potassium fertilizers, refrigerants, allulose, and aramid paper [1][20][23]. Economic Overview - Economic data from June 2025 shows positive signals with a GDP of 31.88 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, indicating stable economic growth in China despite external uncertainties [1][17]. - The central bank has emphasized increasing liquidity and guiding credit towards the real economy, which is expected to stimulate consumption and economic growth [1][17]. Chemical Product Prices - As of June 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 4137 points, a decrease of 4.5% from the beginning of the year [2][18]. - The manufacturing PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment [2][18]. Oil Price Dynamics - International oil prices have experienced volatility due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent and WTI prices fluctuating between $67.77 and $78.85 per barrel [3][19]. - The report anticipates Brent oil prices to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, and WTI prices between $60 and $65 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production strategies and geopolitical developments [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizers, refrigerants, allulose, and aramid paper as key investment areas due to improving supply-demand dynamics and resource scarcity [20][21][22]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include: - Yaqi International for potassium fertilizers, benefiting from a global price recovery [21][23]. - Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. in the refrigerant sector, expected to maintain high profitability due to supply constraints [21][23]. - Bailong Chuangyuan in the allulose market, poised to benefit from domestic health demand growth [21][23]. - Minsida in the aramid paper sector, likely to gain market share due to domestic production advantages [21][23]. Industry Research Potassium Fertilizers - Global potassium fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as demand increases, with China being a major consumer, accounting for approximately 25% of global demand [24][29]. - The report notes that the global potassium fertilizer market is dominated by a few key players, with Canada, Belarus, and Russia holding significant reserves [25][26]. Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is anticipated to benefit from tightening long-term quotas and increased production of air conditioning units, with a positive outlook for R22 and R32 refrigerants [21][22]. Allulose - Allulose is nearing approval in China, which is expected to enhance its market presence and meet rising health-conscious consumer demands [21][22]. Aramid Paper - The aramid paper industry is experiencing a shift as domestic companies capitalize on market opportunities due to regulatory challenges faced by international competitors [21][22].