必选消费品6月需求报告：新禁酒令波及多个行业

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In June 2025, among the eight tracked essential consumer industries, six maintained positive growth while two experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth include beer, soft drinks, condiments, catering, dairy products, and frozen food. The two declining industries are categories of white liquor. Compared to the previous month, seven industries saw a deterioration in growth rates, while one improved. The new alcohol ban and unfavorable weather significantly impacted essential consumption, particularly affecting the catering industry and related consumer goods [28]. Summary by Industry White Liquor - The premium and ultra-premium white liquor industry recorded revenue of 29.6 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%. Cumulative revenue from January to June was 224.1 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year. Most prices fell in June, with ultra-premium prices dropping by over 100 yuan [29]. - The mass and below-premium white liquor industry generated revenue of 13 billion yuan in June, down 13.3% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue from January to June was 104.9 billion yuan, a decline of 13.7% year-on-year. This sector has experienced 17 consecutive months of negative growth [30]. Beer - The domestic beer industry generated revenue of 18.5 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 94.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year. The growth in June was primarily supported by a low base from the previous year [15]. Condiments - The condiment industry reported revenue of 34.7 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 225 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The industry is currently in a phase of stock competition, with leading companies gaining market share [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy industry achieved revenue of 38.7 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 230.5 billion yuan, reflecting a minimal increase of 0.1% year-on-year. The industry is still recovering from previous declines [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food industry generated revenue of 7.8 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 57 billion yuan, also up 1.4% year-on-year. The demand is expected to stabilize as companies adjust their strategies [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry reported revenue of 62.4 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 354 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% growth year-on-year. Despite some weather-related challenges, the overall performance remains strong [23]. Catering - The catering industry generated total revenue of 16.1 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 87.2 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year. The overall demand remains low, but certain segments like casual dining are showing improvement [25].