Guoxin Securities·2025-06-30 14:42Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the home appliance industry is expected to outperform the market, with strong growth observed during the 618 shopping festival, particularly in air conditioning and kitchen small appliances [1][5][12] - During the 618 period, the retail sales of major home appliance categories saw significant growth, with air conditioning retail sales reaching 48.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and washing machines growing by 14.9% [1][18] - The report highlights that while online retail prices for white goods have come under pressure, the average price for kitchen small appliances has shown improvement [1][18] Group 2 - In July, the production of white goods experienced a slight decline, with total production reaching 29.6 million units, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the same period last year [2][23] - The report notes that domestic sales of white goods have stabilized, while external sales are under pressure due to tariffs and high base effects from the previous year [2][23] - Air conditioning production in May was stable, with domestic sales increasing by 13.4%, while exports faced a decline of 12.8% due to various external factors [3][32] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed forecast for key companies, recommending Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haier Smart Home as top picks in the white goods sector, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024 and 2025 [4][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "old-for-new" policy in boosting domestic demand for home appliances, which is expected to lead to a peak in air conditioning demand during the second quarter [12][13] - The small appliance sector is highlighted for its strong overseas growth potential, with specific recommendations for companies like Roborock Technology and Bear Electric [16][13]