Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 102.00 - 112.30 CNY, indicating a potential premium of 3%-13% over the current stock price of 99.51 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has over 20 years of experience in the smart metering market, with more than 90% of its revenue coming from overseas. It has successfully deployed over 90 million smart metering terminals in over 40 countries [1][7]. - The global smart metering market is projected to grow from 23.171 billion USD in 2023 to 36.387 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 9.5% [2][32]. - The company is expanding its market presence in emerging markets, including the Middle East, Central Asia, South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, while maintaining a strong foothold in Europe [3][48]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally part of Shenzhen Technology's metering systems division, has been involved in smart metering since 1998, collaborating with Italy's ENEL. It became an independent entity in 2016 and has a concentrated ownership structure, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission as the ultimate controller [7][48]. Financial Performance - The company expects a revenue of 2.933 billion CNY in 2024, a 15% increase year-on-year, with overseas revenue projected at 2.66 billion CNY, accounting for over 90% of total revenue and growing by 27% [1][13]. - The net profit for 2024 is anticipated to be 589 million CNY, reflecting a 21% year-on-year growth [1][13]. Market Trends - The European smart metering market is entering a new generation of smart meter replacements, with user numbers expected to grow significantly. The company holds a 12.1% market share in Europe, with 16.57 billion CNY in revenue from this region in 2023 [3][50]. - In China, the State Grid and Southern Grid are accelerating the deployment of new generation smart meters, with a projected procurement of 8.939 million units in 2024, a growth of over 25% [2][42]. Business Segments - The company's primary business segment is smart metering terminals, which generated 28.9 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, accounting for 98.5% of total revenue. The AMI system software segment contributed 0.24 billion CNY, or 0.8% of total revenue [19][58]. - The company has established a diverse customer base, including major power companies globally, with the top five customers accounting for 46.58% of total revenue in 2024 [54]. Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 834 million CNY in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 42% from 2024 to 2025. The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 28.4 in 2023 to 13.1 by 2027 [4][59]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in net margin anticipated [23][59].
开发科技（920029）：深耕智能计量技术二十余年，立足欧洲推进全球布局