估值蛰伏，震荡未央

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for cotton [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market is expected to maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market is also expected to have a low - level sideways pattern, with an estimated range of 12,500 - 14,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [2][3] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - term opportunities to short the January contract on rallies and conduct band trading within the estimated range. Also, pay attention to potential reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of the Year: Trade Wars Intensified Cotton Market Fluctuations - In the first quarter, the external market was weakly sideways with a downward shift in the center, while the domestic market was range - bound and relatively resilient. The international market faced a more relaxed supply - demand situation, and the trade war cast a shadow over demand. The ICE cotton price fluctuated weakly around the cost of US cotton, with an operating range of 63 - 69 cents per pound. The domestic market had support from low raw material inventories in downstream spinning enterprises and low social inventories of cotton yarn, but was also constrained by unhedged and unpriced resources of ginning factories and concerns about demand due to the trade war. The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated in the range of 13,300 - 13,900 yuan per ton [16] - In the second quarter, trade policy changes led to intensified fluctuations in both the external and domestic markets. The external market was relatively stable, while the domestic market was more volatile. The price difference between the domestic and international markets first narrowed and then widened. Overall, the domestic market was stronger than the external market [17][18][19] 3.2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.2.1. United States - The USDA may have limited room to further lower the production estimate for the 2025/26 US cotton season. The actual sown area may be lower than the intended area, and the abandonment rate is expected to be between 10% - 20%. The estimated production range is 2.9 - 3.265 million tons [22][23][25] - The export target for the 2024/25 US cotton season has been basically achieved, but the export contract signing for the 2025/26 season has been slow. As of June 12, the cumulative export contract volume for the 2025/26 season was 378,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease [37][38] - The inventory - to - use ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline year - on - year but remain at a moderately high historical level. The estimated inventory - to - use ratio is between 29.3% - 30.8%, and the ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65 - 85 cents per pound [53] 3.2.2. India - The monsoon rainfall is expected to be abundant, and there is a possibility of an increase in the planting area and production. The USDA's estimates of India's cotton planting area and production may be underestimated [60][62] - The net import volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season may continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the US - India trade negotiations and the inventory digestion progress of the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) [68] 3.2.3. Brazil - Brazil's cotton production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high. The Conab has continuously raised its production estimate, and the latest estimate is 3.915 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase [76] 3.2.4. Global - The global supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is not expected to be tight. The USDA's subsequent estimates of global supply and demand may be adjusted to a more relaxed direction. The estimated global cotton production may be revised upwards by 400,000 - 600,000 tons or more, and the consumption may remain stable or slightly decline [84][87][89] 3.2.5. International Cotton Market Fundamental Summary and Market Outlook - It is expected that the cotton market will maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [98] 3.3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.3.1. The Planting Area of Xinjiang Cotton has Expanded in the 2025/26 Season - The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has expanded due to planting structure adjustment and the reclamation of new land. The estimated increase in the national cotton planting area is between 1.7% - 3.3% [105] 3.3.2. Ginning Factories may Remain Rational in New Cotton Purchases - Ginning factories are expected to purchase new cotton rationally. The initial purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year and then fluctuate weakly. The purchase price of cottonseed is expected to be higher than that of last year [110][111][112] 3.3.3. Commercial Inventory of Old Cotton has been Reduced Rapidly - The commercial inventory of old cotton has been reduced rapidly, which has led to concerns about a potential shortage during the transition between the old and new cotton seasons [3] 3.3.4. Registered Warehouse Receipts - Attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts in inland warehouses. If the warehouse receipts cannot be digested, there may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3.3.5. Import Volume of Cotton and Cotton Yarn has Decreased - The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in the 2024/25 season has decreased [3] 3.3.6. Trade Wars and Textile Demand - Trade wars and the uncertain trade policies have cast a shadow over the demand for cotton. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, and the demand in the second half of the year may be weaker than that of last year [2][3] 3.3.7. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand situation in the 2024/25 season was tight, while the 2025/26 season may be a year of easy inventory accumulation [3]