兼评6月PMI数据：“两重”接力支撑PMI，预计Q2GDP约5.2%

Manufacturing Sector - June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, slightly improved from 49.5% in May, indicating a marginal recovery but still below the expansion threshold[3] - New orders, new export orders, and imports PMI increased by 0.4, 0.2, and 0.7 percentage points respectively, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4] - The BCI index for private enterprises fell by 1.0 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating weakened sentiment among smaller firms[4] Construction Sector - June construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, with infrastructure activity remaining robust despite a decline in the construction sub-index[5] - As of June 30, the issuance progress of special bonds reached approximately 49.1%, significantly faster than the same period in 2024[5] - The government has arranged 500 billion yuan for projects in 2025, aiming to expedite the completion of the 800 billion yuan "dual-heavy" construction project list[5] Service Sector - June service PMI stands at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating relative stability in the sector[6] - New orders in the service sector improved by 0.3 percentage points to 46.9%, although consumer spending has weakened due to the fading holiday effect[6] Economic Outlook - Q2 GDP is projected to grow by approximately 5.2%, supported by the "dual-heavy" initiatives and resilient exports[7] - The growth forecast includes contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors at approximately 3.5%, 5.2%, and 5.4% respectively[7] - Economic resilience is attributed to three factors: boosting exports, production, and consumer subsidies, although future export uncertainties remain[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a possible recession in the U.S. economy[8]