Soochow Securities·2025-06-30 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, suggesting a potential turning point in the current cycle [9] - The new housing market shows a significant increase in transaction volume, while the second-hand housing market is experiencing a slight decline [4][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a new model for real estate growth, tailored to local conditions, to better promote high-quality economic development [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector View - The report recommends strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private enterprises in real estate development, such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Greentown China [9] - In property management, companies with strong market expansion capabilities and service diversification are highlighted as having long-term investment value, recommending China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [9] - For real estate brokerage, the report notes that the second-hand housing market has been recovering since August 2022, with a recommendation for leading companies like Beike and a suggestion to pay attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [10] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - New housing sales in 36 cities increased by 39.5% week-on-week but decreased by 31.0% year-on-year, with a total of 5043.6 million square meters sold year-to-date, down 4.0% year-on-year [14] - The second-hand housing market saw a slight decline in transaction volume, with a total of 4020.3 million square meters sold year-to-date, up 18.1% year-on-year [20] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7849.6 million square meters, with a de-stocking period of 20.2 months [30] 3. Land Market Situation - The report notes that from June 23 to June 29, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1783.7 million square meters, down 23.0% month-on-month and down 55.6% year-on-year [50] - The average land price was 1586 RMB per square meter, reflecting a decrease of 23.8% month-on-month and 19.0% year-on-year [50] - Cumulative land transaction area for 2025 is 52061.3 million square meters, down 7.4% year-on-year [50] 4. Financing Situation - In the domestic credit bond market, real estate companies issued a total of 64.8 billion RMB in bonds last week, a decrease of 37.4% week-on-week [53] - The net financing amount for the week was -49.4 billion RMB, indicating a challenging financing environment [53] - Year-to-date, real estate companies have issued a total of 2299.7 billion RMB in credit bonds, up 7.1% year-on-year [53] 5. Market Review - The real estate sector saw a weekly increase of 3.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which increased by 2.0% and 3.6%, respectively [58]