Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with a high risk of chasing the upward trend. Short - selling at high levels can be attempted [3][4] - The A - share market is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner this week [7] - Gold is still bullish in the long - term, and it is likely to restart the upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12] - Iron ore should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset. The over - valuation risk is increased due to weak reality [15][16] - Glass should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term but is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period. Short - selling at a light position can be considered when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000 [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Recently, cotton futures have risen for five consecutive days. On June 30, the morning session was strong with a nearly 1% increase, but the price turned down near the close [3] - From the supply side, there is an expected increase in global cotton production, the old - crop inventory is being depleted rapidly and at a low level, and the expected additional sliding - scale quota may be small, leading to an expectation of tight inventory at the end of the year [3] - From the demand side, although there were positive signs in China's textile and clothing exports in May, commercial inventory is decreasing, and there is rigid restocking demand, the overall demand is sluggish [3] - The cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the weakening of the external market, and the decline in international crude oil prices have increased the substitution cost of chemical fibers, dragging down cotton prices [3] A - share Market - On Monday this week, the three major A - share indices opened lower and closed higher with a mid -阳线. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, better than expected, which is further positive for A - shares [7][8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged [12] Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventory has started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore [16] Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory remains high, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, and demand has not increased significantly [19] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period [21]
金信期货日刊-20250701
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-01 00:31