Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Circle with an Underweight rating and a price target of $80 for December 2026, indicating concerns over the current elevated market capitalization of Circle [2][10][11]. Core Insights - Circle is well positioned in the emerging stablecoin market, benefiting from an early-mover advantage with USDC, which has a market capitalization of approximately $62 billion. The report highlights the potential for growth in various use cases, including cross-border and consumer payments [2][10][16]. - The stablecoin market is characterized as a winner-takes-most environment, with USDT and USDC dominating the space. Circle's focus on regulatory compliance is seen as a significant advantage [7][18][33]. - The report emphasizes the substantial addressable market for stablecoins, estimating it to be around $70 trillion, with potential for USDC to capture a significant share [29][63]. Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - Circle is positioned to capitalize on the growing stablecoin market, with a focus on digital cash use cases and regulatory compliance. The management team is viewed positively, but the current valuation is considered high [10][11][16]. Company Description - Circle Internet Group, Inc. is a blockchain service provider that issues stablecoins, primarily USDC, which is backed by U.S. dollars and regulatory compliant. The company aims to facilitate value transfer and storage through its stablecoin network [31][32]. Market Overview - The stablecoin market has a current capitalization of approximately $240 billion, with USDC holding about 25% market share. The market is largely dominated by USDT and USDC, which together account for around 91% of the total [46][63]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies significant growth opportunities for stablecoins, driven by increasing adoption in digital and cryptocurrency markets, as well as potential regulatory developments that could enhance legitimacy and use cases [7][17][29]. Competitive Landscape - Circle faces competition from various new entrants and traditional financial institutions that may leverage stablecoin technology. However, USDC's regulatory compliance and established network are seen as key differentiators [24][22][18]. Valuation - The valuation of Circle is based on a P/E multiple of 45x the 2027 adjusted earnings estimate, with a price target of $80 reflecting current investor enthusiasm. The report notes that the market cap could reach approximately $58 billion if growth projections are met [11][23][29].
摩根大通：Circle 首次覆盖，目标价80