Micron Technology(US:MU)2025-07-01 00:40Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive sentiment towards the outlook for both DRAM and HBM, with a positioning score of 8 out of 10, indicating a strong long position [4]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has shifted positively due to favorable DDR pricing data and growing optimism around HBM, particularly as Samsung faces challenges. MU is reportedly experiencing strong new customer engagements in HBM, with rush orders from various clients [4]. - The report highlights that MU has successfully brought HBM 3E 12-Hi to market ahead of schedule, showcasing its competitive strengths. Datacenter demand remains robust, and consumer shipments and ASPs are improving [4]. - There are concerns regarding high street expectations, with survey results indicating that these expectations are already priced in. The stock is currently trading at 2.6 times book value, but continued improvements in guidance are expected to support share prices [4]. - Discussions are ongoing about the potential guidance for C26 HBM, with speculation that overwhelming demand may lead to ongoing negotiations rather than a straightforward guide [4]. - The report notes that the rise of HBM may necessitate a reevaluation of valuation metrics, suggesting a shift from P/B to P/E or SOTP [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - MU's revenue guidance for F3Q25 is $8.80 billion with a gross margin of 36.50%, while the street consensus is slightly higher at $8.84 billion and 36.70% gross margin. The survey mean suggests even more optimistic figures of $9.05 billion and 37.46% gross margin [3]. Market Trends - The report indicates a strong demand in the datacenter sector and improving consumer trends, which are expected to positively impact revenue and earnings forecasts for MU [4][10]. Competitive Landscape - MU's advancements in HBM technology and strong customer engagement position it favorably against competitors, particularly in light of Samsung's reported struggles [4].