摩根大通：中国年中_看透关税冲击及未来影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights three main themes to understand the Chinese economy in 2025: Pro-growth Policy, Tariff War 2.0, and Innovations and Transformation [23][25][140] - The tariff war is identified as the biggest external risk for China in 2025, with significant implications for trade and economic growth [25][32] - A shift in policy since September 2024 emphasizes boosting domestic demand as a top priority, with a focus on structural rebalancing and fiscal stimulus [105][106] - The report anticipates a modest growth target of 5% for 2024 and 2025, with inflation concerns persisting [238][239] Summary by Sections Global Macro Backdrop - The global economic outlook is influenced by various scenarios, including the impact of tariffs on trade dynamics [4][13] Tariff War 2.0 - The report discusses the escalation of tariffs, with the US average effective tariff rate on China increasing from 20% to 60% under the current administration [27] - The cumulative tariff increase on China reached 145%, with product-specific tariffs affecting key sectors such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles [27][63] - The potential for further tariff hikes and restrictions on China's investments overseas is highlighted as a significant risk [27][28] Policy Shift - The policy shift since September 2024 is characterized by a focus on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, with a modest fiscal expansion expected [105][106] - The report outlines specific fiscal measures, including a budget deficit target of 4% of GDP for 2025 and a focus on consumption support [106][111] Innovation and Transformation - The report emphasizes the need for innovation and transformation in the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of AI and technology development [140][231] - Policy measures to support the AI industry are outlined, including the establishment of a national AI industry fund [231][234] Economic Outlook - The economic indicators forecast a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2025, with consumption and investment growth expected to remain subdued [238] - The report projects a merchandise trade balance improvement, with exports expected to reach $3,493 billion and imports at $2,664 billion by 2025 [238]