高盛交易台：宏观你需要了解的五件事

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights five key themes impacting the market, including macroeconomic factors, currency dynamics, oil market conditions, and tariff developments [1][2][5][20][29] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Insights - The UK is positioned as a higher-growth, higher-inflation jurisdiction compared to G10 peers, with terminal rates likely settling 100-200 basis points above Europe [2][3] - Business confidence in the UK is at multi-month highs, and there is a deep sovereign bond market with long-term investors under-invested [2][3] Currency Dynamics - The USD may weaken further due to a dovish tilt from the Fed, especially if upcoming labor market data shows weakness [5][6] - The Euro area is experiencing equity inflows, which may lead to a stronger Euro, although the pace could slow if there are no compelling reasons to reallocate from the US [7][8] - The JPY is expected to maintain demand due to recession risks and reduced appeal of US assets, while the INR may lag in appreciation compared to other Asian currencies [9][13] Oil Market Analysis - The risk premium in oil prices has significantly decreased, dropping from over $15 per barrel to just a few dollars, as geopolitical risks have lessened [20][21] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to decline from the current high 60s to around $60 in Q4 and mid-50s by 2026, driven by oversupply [23][24] - Global oil inventories have increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day over the last 90 days, supporting the forecast of an oversupplied market [27][28] Tariff Developments - The July 9 tariff deadline is likely to be pushed out, with potential for sectoral tariffs rather than broad increases [29][30] - The report suggests that specific sectors, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, may face targeted tariffs, but the timing remains uncertain [35][36]