Changjiang Securities·2025-07-01 01:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the snack food industry [4]. Core Insights - The Chinese snack market has entered a mature phase with a current market size exceeding 470 billion RMB and sales volume surpassing 10 million tons, indicating pressure on price increases [10][12]. - The market has evolved through various stages, with significant growth observed before 2014, followed by a stabilization period from 2015 to 2019, and a plateau phase post-2020 [10][12]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and value, particularly among middle-class families, indicating a strong potential for premium products [27][28]. Industry Overview - The Chinese snack market is characterized by a diverse range of products including nuts, baked goods, and meat snacks, with a focus on convenience and impulse buying [13][15]. - The market is projected to grow from approximately 1 trillion RMB in 2018 to over 1.6 trillion RMB by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2023 to 2028 [91][93]. Channel Analysis - The report identifies significant changes in distribution channels, with e-commerce, specialty stores, and convenience stores gaining market share [23][24]. - The rise of membership-based supermarkets is noted, with a projected market size exceeding 38 billion RMB by 2024, reflecting a growing trend among middle-income consumers [35][36]. - The snack retail landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented, with a notable shift towards discount and bulk-buying models [56][68]. Category Analysis - The evolution of snack categories is marked by a transition from basic processing to more sophisticated, health-oriented products, with a growing demand for local flavors and health-conscious ingredients [88][91]. - In 2023, the largest market shares were held by nut snacks (21.5%) and savory snacks (21.2%), indicating consumer preference trends [91][95]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to consumer demands for healthier and more diverse snack options, which presents new opportunities for growth [88][91].