宝城期货国债期货早报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate in the short - term. Although the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI puts pressure on treasury bond futures prices, the need for a loose monetary environment provides support, so they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the overall view is "fluctuation". The core logic is the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and corrected yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, showing an upward trend compared with 49.5 last month, and the new order index returned to the expansion range. This reduces the urgency of future interest rate cuts and puts pressure on treasury bond futures prices. Also, the rapid recovery of risk appetite in the stock market has strengthened the stock - bond seesaw effect, reducing investors' preference for treasury bonds. However, the need for policy support for domestic demand recovery means a loose monetary environment is still needed, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5].