中国纯苯供应格局

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]