华泰证券今日早参-20250701

Macro Insights - Multiple factors are driving a sequential decline in demand, with fiscal spending showing a decrease since Q2, and real estate sales weakening in June [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 49.5% in May to 49.7% in June, indicating marginal recovery, but still below seasonal levels [3] - Government financing has accelerated in June, which may support infrastructure projects [2] Real Estate Sector - In June, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 9.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 25.0% year-on-year due to high base effects from last year [8] - The government has signaled stronger policy support for the real estate market, which may lead to a quicker implementation of policies [8] Fixed Income and Investment Strategies - The introduction of the first batch of 10 sci-tech bond ETFs is expected soon, which will enhance market liquidity and potentially benefit the performance of sci-tech bonds [7] - The adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect is anticipated to include 19 stocks, with historical data indicating that newly included stocks tend to outperform the market [5] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is expected to remain resilient in Q3, with a focus on leading companies that have popular models, such as Geely and BYD [14] - The motorcycle and two-wheeler segments are also expected to benefit from new regulations and seasonal demand [14] Technology and AI - The electronic sector is advised to focus on AI developments, with expectations for significant growth in computing power and domestic manufacturing capabilities [11] - The communication sector is optimistic about AI-related investments and the potential for core assets to see valuation increases as market liquidity improves [12] Energy Sector - Four方股份 is positioned as a leader in the secondary equipment sector for power grids, with a projected revenue CAGR of 11.8% from 2018 to 2024 [16] - 东方电子 is recognized for its strong growth in power automation, with a revenue CAGR of 14.4% from 2008 to 2024, and is expected to benefit from the expanding virtual power plant market [17] Company Ratings - Four方股份 has been rated "Buy" with a target price of 20.20 CNY, reflecting strong growth potential [20] - 东方电子 has also received a "Buy" rating with a target price of 12.60 CNY, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory [20]