专题报告：从“火法”到“湿法”，如何看待镍价成本支撑？

Report Summary 1. Core View The report analyzes the cost support levels of nickel prices under different processes to understand the main drivers of the recent decline in nickel prices and provide a reference for future trends. Currently, the RKEF + converter route for producing pure nickel is in a slight loss, while the oxygen-enriched side-blowing and wet processes still have some profit. In the short term, the cost of the relatively high-cost RKEF + converter route serves as the marginal support line for nickel prices. The decline in nickel prices below this cost line is mainly due to weak downstream demand, low valuations in the middle and downstream sectors, and market expectations of a decline in ore prices [2][6][13]. 2. Summary by Section Fire Process - Production Routes: The main routes for producing high-grade nickel matte using the fire process are the RKEF + converter route represented by Tsingshan and the oxygen-enriched side-blowing route represented by Zhongwei, both using high-grade nickel ore as the main raw material [5]. - Ore Price Increase: The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen from about $33.4/ton at the beginning of the year to $52.9/ton, a increase of 58.4%, driving up the cost of high-grade nickel matte [5]. - Cost Analysis: The cost of producing refined nickel by the RKEF + converter process is highly correlated with the price of nickel pig iron (NPI), with an additional processing cost of $25,000 - $30,000. Currently, the median cost of producing high-grade nickel matte by the RKEF + converter process in Indonesia is about $13,000/metal ton, corresponding to a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 121,000 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The oxygen-enriched side-blowing process has relatively lower costs, about $2,000/metal ton lower than the RKEF + converter process, with a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 105,000 yuan/ton, still having some profit [6]. Wet Process - Production Growth: The HPAL wet process uses low-grade nickel ore as raw material, with obvious cost advantages. Since 2024, the production of MHP in Indonesia has increased rapidly, with the highest monthly production reaching 40,500 tons of nickel metal. It is expected that the annual production of MHP in Indonesia will reach 489,000 tons of nickel metal in 2025 [8]. - Cost Increase: Short - term sulfur shortages have led to a slowdown in MHP marginal production. The current cost of MHP in Indonesia has risen to about $11,800/metal ton, equivalent to an integrated MHP cost of about 112,000 yuan/nickel. Considering by - products, the actual cost may be lower [10]. 3. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating.