国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250701

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Trend: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Fundamentals: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Industry News: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Fundamentals: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - Industry News: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Trend: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - Fundamentals: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - Market Trend: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - Fundamentals: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - Market Trend: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - Industry News: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].