Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, most FOMC voters this year are more inclined to cut interest rates after July, and the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment. China's manufacturing PMI has risen slightly, and the economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. In general, the off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. For iron ore, the recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on prices, while the relatively high iron - making water in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, although the short - term market sentiment is improving, the fundamentals still point downward. For industrial silicon, although there is a short - term rebound, it still faces the problem of oversupply. For glass and soda ash, the medium - term supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the prices are expected to be weak [3][6][10][11][13][15][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.066%) from the previous trading day, with 18,221 tons of registered warrants, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract position decreased by 18,643 lots to 2.12417 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%), with 67,543 tons of registered warrants, a decrease of 1,192 tons, and the main contract position increased by 999 lots to 1.525709 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Market Analysis: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment, and China's manufacturing economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on market sentiment, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the repair rhythm of terminal actual demand, and the support of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 715.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.14% (- 1.00), and the position decreased by 11,149 lots to 668,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0858 million lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.57% [5]. - Market Analysis: In terms of supply, the latest iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the end - of - quarter rush of mines was basically over, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The near - term arrivals decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons, with both blast furnace maintenance and复产. The terminal demand was relatively neutral. In terms of inventory, both the port deshipping volume and port inventory increased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory slightly decreased. In the future, the pig iron production remains stable, the basis has been shrinking, and the absolute price has rebounded to some extent. The recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on ore prices, while the relatively high pig iron production in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. In addition, the performance of coking coal may also put pressure on iron ore [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Position Data: On June 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.49% at 5,642 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) also closed down 0.48% at 5,344 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,450 yuan/ton, with a premium of 106 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - Market Analysis: Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and the price of crude oil has fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. The reason is that the expected significant decline in demand data has not occurred, and the pig iron production has remained high, which has alleviated market concerns about demand. At the same time, the expectation of interest rate cuts overseas in July has also increased the expectation of domestic stimulus policies. In terms of fundamentals, the industrial pattern is still in surplus, the future demand is expected to weaken marginally, and there is still room for downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. Therefore, although manganese silicon has continued a narrow - range upward rebound in the short term, attention should be paid to the downward risk. For ferrosilicon, demand determines the price direction in a bear market, and the supply contraction cannot drive prices up strongly due to weak demand expectations. Although the current high - frequency data shows that the demand for coils and pig iron production are still resilient, it is expected that demand will weaken and pig iron production will decline in the future [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Position Data: On June 30, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) rose significantly during the session and then fell back, finally closing up 0.37% at 8,060 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 8,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures; the price of 421 was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - Market Analysis: The market sentiment has continued to improve recently, and many previously declining varieties have rebounded significantly. However, compared with April 2024, the current market enthusiasm is significantly lower. Industrial silicon still faces the problem of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. The short - term rebound is driven by the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but in an oversupply situation, the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long term. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a suitable position for hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Position Data: For glass, the spot price in Shahe on Monday was 1,126 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China it was 1,030 yuan, unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes (- 0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.5 days, a decrease of 0.3 days. For soda ash, the spot price was 1,223 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, with some enterprises reducing prices. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 1,900 tons (0.11%) from Thursday, with light soda ash inventory decreasing by 4,200 tons to 801,000 tons and heavy soda ash inventory increasing by 6,100 tons to 967,800 tons. The net position of both glass and soda ash had more short - position increases yesterday [17]. - Market Analysis: For glass, the real estate demand has not been significantly boosted, and the futures price is expected to be weak. For soda ash, although the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, the medium - term supply is still loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [17].
黑色建材日报-20250701
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-01 01:39