Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - Treasury Bond: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - Precious Metals: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - Zinc: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - Lead: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - Tin: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - Carbonate Lithium: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - Alumina: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - Crude Oil: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - Methanol: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Urea: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - Styrene: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - PVC: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - PTA: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - Para - xylene: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - Polyethylene (PE): The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - Polypropylene (PP): The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - Eggs: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - Oils and Fats: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - Sugar: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - Cotton: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].
五矿期货文字早评-20250701
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-01 01:38