Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderate easing" of monetary policy remains unchanged. Although the central bank removed the wording of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" in the second - quarter regular meeting, the policy stance is still supportive [6]. - Treasury futures are expected to remain volatile. The removal of the mention of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in the central bank's policy meeting led to a correction in the bond market, but considering the macro - fundamentals and policy signals, there is an upper limit set by the fundamentals and a lower limit set by policy intervention for the risk - free interest rate [7]. - For coking coal and coke, the recent price increase is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. However, once the price rises, the resumption of production will become the main contradiction, and imported coal will also ease the shortage of domestic coal. It is recommended to short on rebounds with light positions [9]. - For US soybeans, the planted area is lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. The inventory being higher than expected is slightly bearish for near - month contracts, while the lower - than - expected area is bullish for far - month contracts. The weather in the production areas will be the focus from July to August [10]. Summary by Directory General Information - The report is from国泰君安期货, dated July 1, 2025 [2][8] Treasury Futures - The central bank's 2025 second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed the mention of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates", reducing the market's expectation of further cuts in the third quarter and causing fluctuations in the bond market on Monday. In the medium term, inflation may bottom out in the second half of the year, but the upward amplitude and rate are limited, so the view of treasury futures remaining volatile is maintained [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The recent synchronous increase in spot and futures prices is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. The high level of hot metal production and the replenishment demand for scarce resources by downstream enterprises, as well as the improvement in the trading of some coal types with the recovery of thermal coal prices, have contributed to the price increase. However, the market's expectation of long - term production capacity has not changed. Once the price rises, the resumption of production will become the main contradiction, and the reduction of the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal will ease the shortage of domestic coal. It is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of sentiment before seeing the stabilization and recovery of production data, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds with light positions is maintained [9] US Soybeans - The planted area data shows that corn is 95.2 million acres (market average expectation: 95.35 million, previous year: 90.59 million), soybeans are 83.38 million acres (market average expectation: 83.65 million, previous year: 87.05 million), and wheat is 45.48 million acres (market average expectation: 45.43 million, previous year: 46.07 million). As of June 1, the national soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels (market average expectation: 0.98 billion, previous year: 0.97 billion). The higher - than - expected inventory is slightly bearish for near - month US soybean contracts, while the slightly lower - than - expected area is bullish for far - month contracts. The weather in the production areas will be the focus from July to August [10] Various Commodities - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [17][21] - Silver: Continuing to rise; trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [17][21] - Copper: Positive sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [23] - Zinc: Fundamentals are relatively bearish; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [26] - Lead: Strong in the medium term; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [29] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [32] - Nickel: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [36] - Stainless steel: Inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [36] - Lithium carbonate: The contradiction of warehouse receipts has been alleviated, and it is running weakly; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [40] - Industrial silicon: Upstream factories have started to resume production, and the futures price may correct; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [43] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the actual spot trading situation; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [43] - Iron ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [46] - Rebar: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [48] - Hot - rolled coil: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [49] - Ferrosilicon: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [53] - Silicomanganese: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [53] - Coke: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [56] - Coking coal: Affected by news, in a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [57] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it is stabilizing with shocks; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [61] - Logs: The main contract is switching, and it is in a wide - range shock; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [65] - Rubber: Running in a shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [68] - Synthetic rubber: Running in a short - term shock [14] - Asphalt: Running in a narrow - range shock [14] - LLDPE: Mainly in a short - term shock [14] - PP: Spot price is in a shock, and trading is light [14] - Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the later stage [14] - Pulp: Running in a shock [14] - Glass: The price of original sheets is stable [14] - Methanol: Running in a short - term shock [14] - Urea: Under shock pressure [14] - Styrene: In a short - term shock [14] - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [14] - LPG: Running in a short - term shock [14] - PVC: The trend is weak [14] - Fuel oil: The weakness persists, and short - term fluctuations are decreasing [14] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly in an oscillating adjustment trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [14] - Container shipping index (European line): Temporarily on the sidelines, pay attention to the price - holding situation in late July [14] - Short - fiber: In a short - term shock [16] - Bottle chips: In a short - term shock, go long PR and short PF [16] - Offset printing paper: Running in a shock [16] - Palm oil: The improvement of the near - end fundamentals in the producing areas is limited [16] - Soybean oil: The old - crop inventory of US soybeans is high, and the new - crop area is slightly reduced [16] - Soybean meal: After the report is released, US soybeans rise slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate [16] - Soybean: May rebound and oscillate [16] - Corn: Running in a shock [16] - Sugar: Strong in the domestic market and weak in the overseas market [16] - Cotton: Lacks effective driving force, and the futures price rises and then falls [16] - Peanut: There is support at the bottom [16]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250701
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-01 01:50